Cautiously optimistic

Going into the evening of January 16, 2008, the Dayton Flyers men's basketball team was 14-1 and ranked as high as #14 in some polls. Head coach Brian Gregory was being heralded as the nation's coach-of-the-year to that point in the season. Senior guard Brian Roberts, with nationally-televised huge games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, was touted as an All-American candidate. Early bracket projections had Dayton slotted easily into a #4 seed with a #3 seed being possible.

On March 26, #3 seed Dayton finished its season 23-11, losing to #1 seed Ohio State. Oh, wait, those were NIT seeds, not NCAA seeds. Sitting in Value City Arena, watching Dayton's season tick away while Ohio State fans decided to put down their books and actually make some noise at a basketball game, I reflected on how quickly things turned sour for Dayton. A combination of injuries, illness, and ineffective play turned a once extremely-promising season into a "What if?" discussion for years to come. The gaudy record that Dayton was building isn't common for the Flyers; those records haven't been seen since the 1950s and the 1960s when Dayton was winning more games than any other college. It was easy to get wrapped up in the excitement and let your mind ponder, "What's ahead? How awesome will it be to be a high seed in the NCAA again? I hope they're placed somewhere affordable because I'm following them, damnit."

The sports calendar has turned to a new season. While the Cincinnati Reds went for the early sack punch and have put together baseball's worst record (going into yesterday), the Crew have put together an amazing start. I doubt even the most optimistic Crew fan would have wagered on a 5-1-0 start with a perfect record at home. Through four home games the Crew have almost as many home wins as all of 2007. The team is winning games in a number of ways and, perhaps most impressive, winning games that they might have drawn or lost last year. This team is exciting to watch so far, and it's easy to get swept up in the fun of supporting the team with the league's best record.

I'm having trouble moving beyond the cautiously optimistic stage right now, however. Fresh off of Dayton's Titanic-like collapse, I'm a bit hesitant to set myself up for another disappointment after a promising start. I'm enjoying the wins, but it's as if I'm waiting for the "real" Crew to appear, the other shoe to drop, the collapse to begin. I'm hoping that after a few more weeks of successful results I'll feel confident that I am watching the "real" Crew and this marathon won't be an example of a team going out too strongly and struggling to finish, but rather a team that paced itself perfectly and has enough gas at the end to kick to the finish.