The new math

A few years ago I was talking to an education major, approximately 75% through her undergraduate program. Somehow the topic of discussion wound its way to math, and how there is a change afoot in how math is taught. It is no longer enough to simply have students memorize multiplication tables. A student won't learn properly that 2x5=10 by learning tables. Rather, it is important for students to understand that 2x5=10 by learning things like, "If you have one group of 5 animals, and they meet another group of 5 animals, you will have 10 animals." I was so frazzled. I sharply replied, "Damnit, we put people on the moon using multiplication tables and slide rules. If tables were good enough then, they're good enough now!"

That introduction aside, it appears that the Crew have been partnering with Ohio State University's math department to develop some new new math (or are we on three news, now?). The new math can best be described using the following equation: 84+82+88= -6. The first three numbers represent the minute in which the Crew allowed game-tying goals at home in the first three matches. The result represents the total points lost so far by pissing away late-game leads. Instead of sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference table while being the conference's only winless team, the Crew could be sitting nicely on 10 points and looking down at most of the conference.

This is not the Riemann hypothesis, and solving the problem should be within the coaching staff and team's grasp. However, 20% into the season with 0 wins is not a great start for a terrible team, let alone a defending champion who returns almost all of the previous year's key components. If this problem's solution continues to elude this organization, Crew fans might have to contact the Clay Mathematics Institute to offer a Millennium Prize.

Crew home games: Game 2 v. Game 1

With the Crew's packed-to-the-rafters crowd of 7,465 for last night's home game against Colorado, BigSoccer is surely full of some people claiming that the Crew should be moved because Columbus is a terrible market, assuming of course that attendance is the sole indicator of an organization's financial health. Yesterday marks the second straight season that the season's second home game dipped below 7,500 for attendance, the two smallest crowds in Crew Stadium to watch an MLS game. Yes, we all know that the announced attendance does not equal the number of people in the stands. That fact's been stated at least 8,938 times on BigSoccer without it sticking; KKKrew gets mentioned approximately half as many times and all of a sudden foreign newspapers claim there's a Crew supporters' group by that name. Amazing.

Anyway, for reference only here is a tabulation of each season's first home game attendance, second home game attendance, percentages, and how the second game compares to the overall season average. Individual game attendances were taken from the Crew's media guide, so they're only as accurate as provided. Then again, the media guide cover states that Frankie Hejduk was an MLS Best XI selection in 2008. Season averages were taken from the MLS web site.

Year...Game 1 Att...Game 2 Att...G2/G1....Avg Att...G2/Avg
1996....25,266.......24,343......96.4%....18,950....128.5%
1997....14,485.......10,622......73.6%....15,043.....70.9%
1998....14,148.......10,121......71.5%....12,275.....82.5%
1999....24,741.......20,782......84.0%....17,696....117.4%
2000....16,095.......12,952......80.5%....15,451.....83.8%
2001....17,947.......14,488......80.7%....17,511.....82.7%
2002....18,450.......11,103......60.2%....17,429.....63.7%
2003....22,058.......12,165......55.2%....16,250.....74.9%
2004....20,356.......13,271......65.2%....16,872.....78.7%
2005....14,358.......12,449......86.7%....12,916.....96.4%
2006....20,818.......13,399......64.4%....13,294....100.8%
2007....13,782.......13,290......96.4%....15,230.....87.3%
2008....13,843........6,733......48.6%....14,622.....46.1%
2009....14,686........7,465......50.8%....XX,XXX.....XX.X%

The worst four-game start ever?

I have to admit that I quickly ran through these numbers, disgusted as I am with the Crew's four-game start to the 2009 MLS season. But as I was watching the minutes tick up, counting toward a second away defeat for the Crew this week, I wondered what defending MLS Cup champion had the fewest points after its first four games of its defending season. Assuming I read all the results correctly - no small feat when one considers (a) how quickly I reviewed them and (b) the ever-changing presentation of schedules on MLS's web site - the 2009 Columbus Crew do have the fewest points after four games. Here is the year-by-year tallies:

1997, DC United........9 points
1998, DC United........7
1999, Chicago..........9
2000, DC United........3 (so close...)
2001, Kansas City......9
2002, San Jose.........6
2003, Los Angeles......3 (note: all four were away)
2004, San Jose.........4
2005, DC United........4
2006, Los Angeles......4
2007, Houston..........4
2008, Houston..........3
2009, Columbus.........2

One fan's Crew goals for 2009

Repeating as the league champion in any sport or in any league isn't an easy task. In many cases winning the championship isn't simply the result of one over-riding factor, like merely having the league's best talent for example. Rather, championships are often the result of a confluence of a number of factors coming together at one time, resulting in something truly special. The Crew's 2008 season, in my opinion, is no different. There are too many factors to the Crew's MLS Cup victory to list, but one can quickly identify some significant factors - acquiring Brian Carroll, Guillermo Barros Schelotto's MVP season, Chad Marshall's outstanding defensive season, William Hesmer's performance in goal. Those are just easily identifiable personnel issues, and they don't begin to account for things like a reported amazing team chemistry, the first true connection between the players and the fans, and other intangible qualities that are always found in championship teams.

It took Columbus thirteen seasons to win its first title, and even though I was in Los Angeles to witness the victory it's still somewhat unreal that the Crew capped off 2008 with the victory. Even though the optimist in me sees that so far the Crew have maintained a significant chunk of its 2008 core, which bodes extremely well for 2009, the realist (maybe the pessimist?) in me acknowledges that a 2009 MLS Cup victory is not only unexpected but probably unlikely. There have been twelve MLS Cup winners who had the chance to win consecutive titles and only two - DC United in 1997 and Houston in 2007 - were able to complete the task. In addition to those two repeat winners, DC United's 1998 MLS Cup berth is the only other time a defending MLS Cup winner has advanced to the title game the following season.

With those not favorable odds in mind, I'm not punting the 2009 season, throwing up my hands, and expecting a return to the wilderness years immediately prior to 2008. Furthermore, as a fan I'm not completely writing off the Crew's chances to repeat as MLS Cup winners. While topping any championship season is difficult, I think the Crew's 2008 season will be especially difficult to top from a fan's perspective. However, as a fan, I have identified some rather modest goals for the 2009 season, goals that I think would result in an entertaining and enjoyable season should they be reached by the Crew.

• Retain Trillium Cup and not lose any games to Toronto FC
• Legitimately contend for Supporters' Shield and finish no lower than second in the Eastern Conference
• Legitimately contend for the US Open Cup, advancing to at least the quarterfinals
• Legitimately contend for the MLS Cup, advancing to at least the tournament's semifinals
• Win at least ten home league matches
• Finish in the top three of goals scored and goal difference
• Place at least one player on the league's year-end Best XI
• Place at least two players in the final three of the league's year-end individual honors
• Place at least one player on various US World Cup Qualifier game-day rosters
• Finish in the top half of the league's average home attendance
• Advance past the group stage of the CONCACAF Champions League

Other fans will have other goals, and other fans will be entertained by the 2009 Crew in other ways. For me, however, I honestly believe that the goals I've listed above could really result in a fun, entertaining, and enjoyable 2009 season. Can the MLS season just start already?